The Analysis (A) stage delivered a portfolio of problems. We now know exactly where we are and how much each failure is costing us.
This brings us to the central dilemma of strategy: the "short blanket." We have the resources (budget, man-hours) to solve only 10 of these 50 problems this quarter.
Where do we begin? Traditional management answers with intuition. AresPraxis™ answers with architecture. This page introduces the AresRisk™ framework.
"Intuitive prioritization" (using a simple 4-quadrant matrix) is weak because it relies on deterministic values (a single number). It assumes the benefit will be "Y," when reality is a range of probabilities.
The AresRisk™ framework replaces intuition with probability. It is a three-level process:
Level 1: The Deterministic Filter (The Matrix): We use the "Prioritization Matrix" (Criticism vs. Return) as a first filter to classify interventions (Immediate, Conditional, Strategic).
Level 2: The Uncertainty Model (Monte Carlo): We take the "High" priorities and challenge the "Expected Return." We model thousands of scenarios (Monte Carlo Simulation) to understand the complete distribution of results .
Level 3: The Focus (Sensitivity Analysis): We use the "Sensitivity Tornado" and "Sobol Indices" to identify which variables (e.g., "logistics failure" or "pump uptime") have the greatest impact on the outcome .
I was presented with a "perfect" major maintenance plan. The schedule said the intervention would take "15 days." I asked the team: "15 days exactly? What's the probability that parts logistics fail? What if it rains? What if there's a staffing failure?" The plan fell apart.
The "single value" (15 days) was a fantasy. AresRisk™ isn't for pessimists; it's for realists. It forced us to model those risks and discover the real range was "18 to 30 days." The plan changed, and the project was a success... because it was honest .
The result of applying AresRisk™ is a "Defensible Decision Architecture."
We no longer say: "We think this project is important." We say: "This intervention (Well A) offers us the highest Expected Return (P50), with a quantified and acceptable tail risk (P5)."
We now have a prioritized and validated portfolio of interventions. We are ready to leave planning behind and enter the "Praxis" .